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An Analysis of Hurricane Edouard SST Sensitivity Runs by HWRF in a Neutral-shear Environment

Fitzpatrick, P. J., Dong, J., Lau, Y. H., Kim, H. S., Zhu, L., & Mehra, A. (2018). An Analysis of Hurricane Edouard SST Sensitivity Runs by HWRF in a Neutral-shear Environment. 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Ponte Vedra, FL.

Abstract

The association of ocean fluxes to tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, as well as intensity changes, is well-known. However, the timing of rapid intensity changes and steady-state conditions still presents forecasting challenges. In 2016, NHC validation analyses show the previous cycle operational HWRF, interpolated to the operation’s hour (HWFI), is now more skillful than statistical intensity guidance such as SHIPS and LGEM. Therefore, HWRF datasets may reliably provide insight into the intensity response to ocean forcing. We present results of the 2016 and operational version of HWRF to eight constant sea surface temperature (SST) configurations, and one coupled POM run, in a neutral shear environment (8 m/s


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