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Development and Application of a Parametric Rainfall Model, P-CLIPER

Dresback, K., Geoghegan, K., Fitzpatrick, P. J., & Kolar, R. (2018). Development and Application of a Parametric Rainfall Model, P-CLIPER. 15th Estuarine and Coastal Modeling Conference. Seattle, WA.

Abstract

During tropical storms, rainfall can lead to a significant amount of flooding, both in the upland and coastal areas. A coupled modeling system was developed to provide total water level (tides + waves + surge + runoff) results. The system couples precipitation estimates via QPE/QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation/Forecasting), a hydrologic model (HL-RDHM Research Distributed Hydrologic Model), a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC ADvanced CIRCulation) and a wave model (SWAN Simulating WAves Nearshore). It was successfully utilized during Hurricane Irene in 2011. However, the precipitation estimates via QPE/QPF are only associated with the direct track of the hurricane. Thus as an extension of this work we have been investigating a parametric rainfall model in order to be able to incorporate ensemble capability into the precipitation estimates term. For example, the rainfall estimate produced by NOAA in the current system is only associated with the consensus track of the hurricane from the National Hurricane Center; by incorporating the new parametric rainfall model, the rainfall associated with different hurricane tracks could be included. In this presentation, we will summarize the development of a parametric rainfall model, PDF Precipitation-Climatology and Persistence (P-CLIPER). Several historical hurricane storms within the North Carolina area will be utilized in the evaluation of P-CLIPER. Skill is assessed by comparing the hydrological response of model driven by P-CLIPER versus observed precipitation estimates. Finally, as part of this work, a rainfall source term has been incorporated into the ADCIRC model to account for the rainfall over inundated coastal areas. Results with the new rainfall source terms will be shown for Hurricane Isabel.


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